Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actual
Later 54.4%Líder entre 5 opciones
Later 54.4%Pronosticadores
17
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
+20.5 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 11 horas
Desactualizado9 ene 24, 22:50 UTC1 ene 28, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
In 2028, will a commercial AI be able to play almost all computer games at human level with zero-shot computer use?
Manifold MarketsWhen will a humanoid robot be able to unbox a 5,000+ piece new Lego set, read the manual, and assemble the entire model?
Manifold MarketsWhich of these game franchises will have an official Lego set released before Jan 1st 2028?
Manifold MarketsWho is Dwarkesh's upcoming "biggest guest yet"?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketReglas
I will resolve this whenever a credible video is posted of an autonomous robot system assembling, from printed instructions, a Lego set that it has not specifically been trained to assemble.
- I will resolve to 'Later' if no such video has been posted by EOY 2027.
- This does not have to be a general system; it is fine if the system is specifically trained to do Lego assembly, on other Lego sets.
- Applying stickers is not required.