When will a humanoid robot be able to unbox a 5,000+ piece new Lego set, read the manual, and assemble the entire model?
One-OffTecnologíaCienciaManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual2028 25.1%Líder entre 9 opciones
Pronosticadores
5
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
+0.5 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 18 horas
Desactualizado9 ene 26, 8:29 UTC1 ene 01, 7:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
When will a robot zero-shot assemble a 100+ piece Lego set?
Manifold MarketsWill a robot be able to assemble LEGOs from a LEGO instruction set by EOY2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich of these game franchises will have an official Lego set released before Jan 1st 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill a robot be able to reliably tie a men's necktie by the year 2034?
Manifold MarketsWill a humanoid robot walk on Mars before a human does?
KalshiWill ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsReglas
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES when a humanoid robot (bipedal, anthropomorphic form factor) successfully completes all of the following in a single, continuous attempt:
- Unboxes a previously unreleased Lego set with 5,000+ pieces
- Reads and interprets the instruction manual as provided to human builders
- Assembles the entire model according to the manual without human intervention
- Resolution will be determined by video evidence published by the robot manufacturer or verified by independent third parties.
