Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 26 oct 2026, 0:12 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actual2027 71.3%Líder entre 5 opciones
Pronosticadores
33
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 13 horas
Desactualizado8 ago 25, 19:26 UTC1 ago 29, 21:34 UTC
Tendencias
Reglas
This market will resolve to the first year when a freely available large language model achieves a gold medal-level performance at the International Mathematical Olympiad.
- The model must be available before day 1 of the IMO.
- I must be able to use the model without paying.
- For each year, directly after each day of the exam, I will pick the strongest LLMs and give them the problems independently.
- Each LLM has one attempt at each problem.
- I will then grade the problems.
