Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualThe shooter killed Charlie Kirk 100%Líder entre 179 opciones
Pronosticadores
600
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 4 horas
Desactualizado10 sept 25, 22:03 UTC10 dic 26, 22:57 UTC
Tendencias
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Update 2025-09-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If it's ambiguous whether the shooter is male, this market will resolve to N/A.
- If any such accomplice exists, this answer will not resolve as true.
- Update 2025-10-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A conviction or guilty plea in court would be sufficient evidence to resolve answers about the shooter's identity
- Direct evidence would be sufficient
- Circumstantial evidence or evidence described as "seemingly" implicating someone would not be sufficient to resolve
Mercados abiertos
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 135,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 102,7 mil €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 325 mil €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 resultados más
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de What's true about Charlie Kirk's shooter?
- Manifold Markets cotiza The shooter killed Charlie Kirk al 100% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve What's true about Charlie Kirk's shooter?
- Está previsto que What's true about Charlie Kirk's shooter se resuelva el 10 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida What's true about Charlie Kirk's shooter?
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Update 2025-09-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If it's ambiguous whether the shooter is male, this market will resolve to N/A.