Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
Later or never 28.6%Líder entre 6 opciones
Pronosticadores
6
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 13 horas
Desactualizado16 feb 24, 17:46 UTC31 dic 28, 22:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will I finish my stuff on time?
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Manifold MarketsWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiReglas
I have been working on it since September 2020, have two publications and one manuscript ready to be published, plus some work-in-progress stuff, and have funding for all of 2024.
- I will use the defense date as the point at which it is "finished".
Mercados abiertos
SciencePOLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31-0.5pt4%
- September 30-0.6pt1%
- April 300%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 59,4 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 176,8 mil €
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 202921%
- Before 2028-1.0pt13%
- Before 2027-1.1pt5%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 29,5 M €
- Volumen 24h
KALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 203580%
- Before 2030-9.1pt62%
- Before 2029-7.9pt17%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 271 mil €
POLYMARKETAI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
- No+10.9pt97%
- Yes-10.9pt3%
- Volumen total
- 24,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 3,9 mil €
POLYMARKETWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- 1-1.5pt75.8%
- 2+0.5pt24.2%
- 3-1.0pt0%
+3 resultados más
KALSHIWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Yes-1.6pt73%
- No27%
- Volumen total
- 302,9 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 2,8 mil €
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- When will an AI lab solve another Millennium Prize Problem?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- Is Earth flat?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will be solved next?
- When will the Hodge Conjecture be resolved?
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- When will Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer be resolved?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de What year will I finish my PhD??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Later or never al 29% a fecha de 17 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve What year will I finish my PhD??
- Está previsto que What year will I finish my PhD? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2028.
- ¿Cómo se liquida What year will I finish my PhD??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: I have been working on it since September 2020, have two publications and one manuscript ready to be published, plus some work-in-progress stuff, and have funding for all of 2024.