What will the top score on Epoch AI's FrontierMath: Erdős (68 open Erdős problems) be on November 7, 2026?
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Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual9% or higher (7+ solved) 63.8%Líder entre 4 opciones
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Desactualizado8 oct 26, 8:49 UTC8 nov 26, 4:59 UTC
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What will the best score on Epoch AI's FrontierMath: Erdős benchmark be at the end of November 7, 2026 (US Eastern)?
- What the benchmark is: 68 conjectures from ErdősProblems.com, all still open research problems as of August 2026, written in Lean.
- A model gets $300 and 72 hours per problem, and a problem only counts if its proof passes Lean's proof checker.
- No partial credit, no grader judgment.
- Where things stand (Oct 8, 2026): Epoch has scored 5 models.
- GPT-6 Astra (max) leads at 2.9%, which is 2 of 68.
