Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
2028 19.2%Líder entre 12 opciones
Pronosticadores
27
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 7 horas
Desactualizado4 jul 24, 18:19 UTC12 jul 35, 3:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
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Manifold MarketsReglas
This isn't about gross revenue, it's revenue minus all expenses.
- Resolves when official financial reporting is available, showing their revenue minus expenses was positive for OpenAI, in any year.
- Resolves that year to "Yes" and all other options to "No".
- We can add more years if they are still running but haven't made a profit yet.
- If they go out of business first, then we resolve to "the named outcome".
Mercados abiertos
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volumen total
- 224,7 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 160,5 mil €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 2,3 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 344,9 mil €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 resultados más
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
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- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
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- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de What will be the first year OpenAI makes a net profit??
- Manifold Markets cotiza 2028 al 19% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve What will be the first year OpenAI makes a net profit??
- Está previsto que What will be the first year OpenAI makes a net profit? se resuelva el 12 de julio de 2035.
- ¿Cómo se liquida What will be the first year OpenAI makes a net profit??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: This isn't about gross revenue, it's revenue minus all expenses.