Aviso de calidad de datosDatos obsoletos
Datos del 25 jul 2026, 4:00 UTC · política pm-quality-2
Pronóstico comunitario actual
Republican president, <2% 23.2%-4.5%Líder entre 8 opciones
Pronosticadores
32
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado ayer
Desactualizado9 jul 24, 16:051 ene 29, 22:59
Tendencias
Solo fondos simulados, sin dinero realNo es asesoramiento financiero
Resultado elegido
Republican president, <2%23%
Tendencia de volumen
$3.9k24 jul2d de datos25 jul
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This market will resolve to the answer with the combination of the party of the president elected in the 2024 presidential elections and the average real GDP growth rate for the years 2025, 2026, 2027, and 2028.
- If a third-party candidate wins the 2024 presidential election, this market will be canceled.
- Average GDP growth will be calculated as the geometric mean of annual inflation-adjusted GDP growth for each of the four years, as reported by Our World in Data, or another broadly reliable source if the data cannot be obtained via Our World in Data.
- I expect the data to be available at https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/real-gdp-growth?tab=chart&time=2025..2028&country=~USA, but if Our World in Data changes the format of their URLs the data may be found at a different URL.
- My original intent was to resolve the answers of the losing party to NO after the election; but I have been informed that it is not possible in a dependent multiple choice market like this one to resolve only some of the answers.
- Know that the Democrat president answers will be NO when this market resolves.