Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualBefore 2026-12-16 81.4%+31.4ptLíder entre 6 opciones
Pronosticadores
3
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
+31.4 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 7 minutos
9 sept 26, 17:41 UTC16 dic 26, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
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KalshiReglas
This market resolves based on the release of Meta's model currently codenamed 'Watermelon'.
- Any name under which this model is ultimately released — whether 'Watermelon', 'Muse Spark 2', or another name — will count, as long as it is generally understood to be the model currently being developed under that codename.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.
Mercados abiertos
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-2.0pt58%
- ChatGPT-3.3pt21%
- Grok+0.6pt8%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,2 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 93,6 mil €
POLYMARKETAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027+7.5pt76%
- 2026+27.5pt48%
- September 30, 2026+10.0pt19%
KALSHIWhat will Spotify CEO say during Goldman Sachs Communacopia?
- Anthropic / Claude+27.0pt99%
- Video+27.0pt99%
- Royalty / Licensing+63.0pt99%
+14 resultados más
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Alibaba-3.0pt69.7%
- Moonshot-1.0pt25.3%
- Z.ai+1.8pt3%
+8 resultados más
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+1.5pt89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 4.1%+8.0pt99%
- Above 3.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.2%99%
+6 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 45,2 mil €
- What will Macy's say during their next earnings call?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic market share this week
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- OpenAI market share this week
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de 'Watermelon' LLM (Meta) release date?
- Manifold Markets cotiza Before 2026-12-16 al 81% a fecha de 10 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve 'Watermelon' LLM (Meta) release date?
- Está previsto que 'Watermelon' LLM (Meta) release date se resuelva el 16 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida 'Watermelon' LLM (Meta) release date?
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: This market resolves based on the release of Meta's model currently codenamed 'Watermelon'.