Manifold MarketsCerradoSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoEste mercado está cerrado y esperando una resolución confirmada.
Resuelto: 12 oct 2026, 18:00
Datos de resolución no verificados
Este resultado se infiere o no está respaldado por evidencia de liquidación de nivel proveedor.
Aviso de calidad de datosDatos obsoletos
Datos del 13 oct 2026, 12:32 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Cronología de Probabilidad
Before 2026-10-010%
Before 2026-10-16100%
Before 2026-11-01100%
Before 2026-11-16100%
Before 2026-12-01100%
Before 2026-12-16100%
Resultado pendiente
Resultado pendiente
Resultado pendiente
Resultado pendiente
Resultado pendiente
Resultado pendiente
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will Meta release Llama 5 this year?
KalshiWill Meta release a smartwatch in 2026?
Manifold MarketsIn what year will Google or Meta release a commercial facial recognition search product?
Manifold MarketsWill Meta release Muse Spark 1.4 (or any higher-numbered Muse Spark) by November 30, 2026?
Manifold MarketsMuse Wonder 1.1+ (Meta) release date
Manifold MarketsGrand Theft Auto VI: Release date
KalshiReglas
This market resolves based on the release of Meta's model currently codenamed 'Watermelon'.
- Any name under which this model is ultimately released — whether 'Watermelon', 'Muse Spark 2', or another name — will count, as long as it is generally understood to be the model currently being developed under that codename.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.
