¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de U.S. tests/uses nuclear weapon during Trump's presidency??

Manifold Markets cotiza No al 88.9% a fecha de 27 de octubre de 2026.

¿Cuándo se resuelve U.S. tests/uses nuclear weapon during Trump's presidency??

Está previsto que U.S. tests/uses nuclear weapon during Trump's presidency? se resuelva el 20 de enero de 2029.

Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptable

Pronóstico comunitario actual

No 88.9%

Pronosticadores

Tipo de pregunta

binary

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 33 minutos

3 nov 25, 23:51 UTC20 ene 29, 11:59 UTC

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Reglas

This market resolves YES if, at any point during Donald Trump’s current presidency, the United States tests or uses a nuclear weapon.

“Test” means any nuclear detonation — underground, atmospheric, or subcritical — officially conducted or authorized by the U.S. government for research, maintenance, or demonstration purposes.
“Use” means the detonation of a nuclear weapon in military action or combat.
The market resolves NO if Trump’s presidency ends without either event occurring.
Sources: Resolution will be based on official U.S. government statements (e.g. Department of Defense (“War”), Department of Energy, or the White House) or confirmation by major media outlets such as Reuters, AP, BBC, or The New York Times.