Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 25 oct 2026, 15:20 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actualNo 90.3%
Pronosticadores
47
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 8 horas
Desactualizado8 ene 25, 12:14 UTC2 feb 29, 7:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will Republicans lawmakers try to repeal the current presidential term limit before the 2028 election?
Manifold MarketsWill the position of Prime Minister of Hungary have a term limit before April 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a term limit be placed on the US House before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a term limit be placed on the US Senate before 2030?
Manifold MarketsTerm limit for US Supreme Court justices enacted in 2026?
FutuurWho wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?
PolymarketReglas
This is about whether Trump succeeds in breaking the two term presidential term limit, either by being a candidate in 2028, or not giving up power after the 2024 term is up
- NOT breaking the limit looks like: two or more candidates, not including Trump, run in 2028 and then in 2029 the winner is in power and Trump leaves the White House.
- Or Trump leaves office early for any reason such as health, political loss or prosecution or flight.
- Even if he is overseas claiming to be the rightful president, if he's gone and not in control of the levers of power then NO
- If Trump tries a bunch of YES like things but doesn't succeed and both the election happens as usual and Trump loses power at inauguration, then this can still NO.
- Its about whether he succeeds at going against the traditional two term limit.
