Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualWill be Indian 100%Líder entre 20 opciones
Pronosticadores
30
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 14 horas
Desactualizado25 abr 24, 21:44 UTC3 may 28, 6:59 UTC
Tendencias
100%
100%
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
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Update 2024-18-12 (PST): - "Losing to someone who has been world champion before" refers to losing the world championship title to a person who has previously been world champion (AI summary of creator comment)
- All "lose to" or "be defeated by" etc refer to the competition for the championship itself.
- Similarly, Defend refers to defending the championship.
- Also note that unless otherwise specified, statements such as "will defend his title 3 times" refer to his current holding of the title.
- For example, say he defends well in 2025 and 2026, then loses in 2027, then wins it again in 2028, then defends it again for the 3rd time in 2029.
- That would NOT count as defending 3 times.
Mercados abiertos
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-2.0pt59.8%
- 2027-8.0pt30.8%
- 2026+1.0pt9.3%
- Volumen total
- 225,9 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 157 mil €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+2.0pt89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 resultados más
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- 2,4 M €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.5pt58.1%
- ChatGPT+1.4pt26.7%
- Grok-2.4pt5.7%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+6.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+7.0pt9%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 resultados más
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+6.0pt79.1%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.8%
- Gemini2.7%
+4 resultados más
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- 348,3 mil €
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Gukesh D's actions as World Champion - independent multi market?
- Manifold Markets cotiza Will be Indian al 100% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Gukesh D's actions as World Champion - independent multi market?
- Está previsto que Gukesh D's actions as World Champion - independent multi market se resuelva el 3 de mayo de 2028.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Gukesh D's actions as World Champion - independent multi market?
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Update 2024-18-12 (PST): - "Losing to someone who has been world champion before" refers to losing the world championship title to a person who has previously been world champion (AI summary of creator comment)