Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actual2029 68.5%Líder entre 6 opciones
Pronosticadores
12
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 13 horas
Desactualizado24 sept 25, 16:43 UTC31 dic 30, 16:38 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
When will AI-rendered video games have 1 million paid users?
Manifold MarketsWhat’s the least impressive thing you’re very sure AI still won’t be able to do before August 2027? [read description]
Manifold MarketsCoinflip of the century (experiment in prediction markets, read description)
Manifold MarketsWhen will AIs be good at solving complex problems? (read description)
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketReglas
Each year is resolved to the percentage of goals below achieved by AI-rendered games:
- The game is winnable.
- The game must have any win condition - some kind of task that a player must complete to win.
- If the task is just walking to a goal - considered 50% achieved.
- The game has 10+ hours of gameplay.
- Requires (1), will be estimated based on casual playthrough videos and reporting.