On January 1st 2027, will I think Dulce Consuelo Diaz Morales is obviously a US citizen?
One-OffUS PoliticsSociety & Culture3mManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 62.6%
Pronosticadores
3
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 11 horas
Desactualizado13 feb 26, 23:08 UTC31 dic 26, 0:00 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will at least one US citizen be awarded the 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics?
Manifold MarketsUS Military kills 1+ US Citizen in military strike on alleged drug traffickers?
Manifold MarketsIf a US citizen is deported before 2029, will they be returned to the US before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
KalshiIdaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?
PolymarketWill Prince Andrew testify publicly before Congress in 2026?
PredictItReglas
DHS had detained Diaz Morales, who claims to be a US citizen; their official statement is that she is Mexican with no legal status in the US.
- As of the time of writing, she is temporarily released with an ankle monitor and check-ins with ICE.
- [tweet]https://www.newsweek.com/ice-detains-maryland-woman-us-citizen-claims-dhs-denies-11257159
- Resolves YES if I think she is obviously a US citizen on January 1st 2027.
- Update 2026-02-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator clarifies that the resolution standard is whether they think it's "obviously" a US citizen - a higher standard than just thinking it's true.
- The creator acknowledges this is a subjective judgment that may be difficult for traders to verify or predict, and that they could potentially weigh evidence wrongly at resolution time.
Mercados abiertos
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 605,6 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 693 mil €
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 603,1 M €
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+1.4pt96%
- $25M+2.0pt94%
- $50M+5.0pt90%
+4 resultados más
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 resultados más
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.1%
- Marco Rubio20.6%
- Ron DeSantis4.9%
+35 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 54,7 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 266,9 mil €
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Volumen total
- 12,5 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 248,7 mil €
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- NJ-07 House winner?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
- IA-01 House winner?
- Which states will redistrict before the midterms?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de On January 1st 2027, will I think Dulce Consuelo Diaz Morales is obviously a US citizen??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 63% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve On January 1st 2027, will I think Dulce Consuelo Diaz Morales is obviously a US citizen??
- Está previsto que On January 1st 2027, will I think Dulce Consuelo Diaz Morales is obviously a US citizen? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida On January 1st 2027, will I think Dulce Consuelo Diaz Morales is obviously a US citizen??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: DHS had detained Diaz Morales, who claims to be a US citizen; their official statement is that she is Mexican with no legal status in the US.