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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 13 horas
Desactualizado15 oct 23, 17:13 UTC2 ene 29, 18:00 UTC
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Will 10-day out weather forecasting reach 60% accuracy before 2029?
- Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
- Resolution criteria
- This question will resolve as Yes if, before 2029, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reports that the day 10 forecast for 500 hPa height has reached an anomaly correlation coefficient of 60% or greater for either the Northern Hemisphere or Southern Hemisphere, using the 12-month running mean.
- This market is managed by a bot.
- Once the original question resolves this market should automatically resolve the next time the bot is run.
Mercados abiertos
Weather
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above+68.0pt95.2%
- 88° to 89°-22.0pt1%
- 84° to 85°-8.0pt1%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 586,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 568,4 mil €
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- New Orleans+48.0pt99%
- Houston+70.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+17.0pt99%
+19 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+53.0pt95.2%
- 79° or below-3.0pt1%
- 82° to 83°-44.0pt1%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIHighest temperature in Austin on Sep 8, 2026?
- 102° to 103°+55.0pt95.2%
- 100° to 101°-47.0pt1%
- 98° to 99°-9.0pt1%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIHighest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- 92° to 93°+47.0pt95.2%
- 90° to 91°-34.0pt1%
- 88° to 89°-6.0pt1%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
FORECASTEXWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 85 F on September 8, 2026?
- Yes86%
- No14%
- Volumen total
- 108,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 108,2 mil €
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de [Metaculus] Will 10-day out weather forecasting reach 60% accuracy before 2029??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 78% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve [Metaculus] Will 10-day out weather forecasting reach 60% accuracy before 2029??
- Está previsto que [Metaculus] Will 10-day out weather forecasting reach 60% accuracy before 2029? se resuelva el 2 de enero de 2029.
- ¿Cómo se liquida [Metaculus] Will 10-day out weather forecasting reach 60% accuracy before 2029??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Will 10-day out weather forecasting reach 60% accuracy before 2029?