Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 26 oct 2026, 0:53 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actualBefore 2040 36.9%Líder entre 5 opciones
Pronosticadores
12
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 8 horas
Desactualizado9 mar 25, 18:23 UTC1 ene 00, 0:00 UTC
Tendencias
Reglas
This market asks when 14-day weather forecasts will reach at least 60% accuracy as determined by official statements from major meteorological organizations (NOAA, Met Office, ECMWF, etc.).
- Current accuracy levels for reference:
- 7-day forecasts: ~80% accurate
- 10-day forecasts: ~50% accurate
- https://scijinks.gov/forecast-reliability/
- https://ourworldindata.org/weather-forecasts
