Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 93.7%
Pronosticadores
14
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 4 horas
Desactualizado25 mar 26, 18:08 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Reglas
This market will resolve to the percentage representing the opinion of the creator at the end of 2027 concerning whether Sora being shutdown was due to the AI bubble beginning to pop, or that it sparked a pop in the AI bubble.
- At the time of market creation, I would resolve to somewhere between 1 and 3%, representing my opinion that the AI bubble is not yet popped, that there may not even be an AI bubble to pop, and that Sora being shut down was likely due to compute and electricity bottlenecks while other research and profitable models were pursued.
- Update 2026-03-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For resolution, Sora's shutdown must be causally linked to the AI bubble popping — either as a cause or as an effect of the bubble beginning to pop.
- It is not sufficient for the shutdown to merely coincide with or occur during an already-unfolding bubble pop.
