Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 93.7%
Pronosticadores
14
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 22 horas
Desactualizado25 mar 26, 18:08 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
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Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
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PolymarketReglas
This market will resolve to the percentage representing the opinion of the creator at the end of 2027 concerning whether Sora being shutdown was due to the AI bubble beginning to pop, or that it sparked a pop in the AI bubble.
- At the time of market creation, I would resolve to somewhere between 1 and 3%, representing my opinion that the AI bubble is not yet popped, that there may not even be an AI bubble to pop, and that Sora being shut down was likely due to compute and electricity bottlenecks while other research and profitable models were pursued.
- Update 2026-03-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For resolution, Sora's shutdown must be causally linked to the AI bubble popping — either as a cause or as an effect of the bubble beginning to pop.
- It is not sufficient for the shutdown to merely coincide with or occur during an already-unfolding bubble pop.
Mercados abiertos
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-11.0pt62.4%
- 2027-3.5pt29.7%
- 2026-1.5pt7.9%
- Volumen total
- 241,3 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 128 mil €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.7pt58.8%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt23.5%
- Grok+2.3pt7.8%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+1.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+3.0pt10%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 resultados más
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+1.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt10.2%
- Gemini+1.0pt2.8%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 349,4 mil €
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Is Sora's shutdown the start of an AI bubble pop by 2028??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 94% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Is Sora's shutdown the start of an AI bubble pop by 2028??
- Está previsto que Is Sora's shutdown the start of an AI bubble pop by 2028? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Is Sora's shutdown the start of an AI bubble pop by 2028??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: This market will resolve to the percentage representing the opinion of the creator at the end of 2027 concerning whether Sora being shutdown was due to the AI bubble beginning to pop, or that it sparked a pop in the AI bubble.