Aviso de calidad de datosDatos obsoletos
Datos del 25 jul 2026, 14:40 UTC · política pm-quality-3
Pronóstico comunitario actual
By 3-31-2028 46.5%Líder entre 10 opciones
Pronosticadores
72
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado ayer
Desactualizado26 oct 25, 11:3831 dic 27, 10:29
Tendencias
Solo fondos simulados, sin dinero realNo es asesoramiento financiero
Resultado elegido
By 9-30-20265%
Comparar plataformas· By 3-31-2028
Ordenado por calidad de mercado, luego liquidez y volumen de 24 h| Plataforma | Calidad | Probabilidad | vs. referencia | Vol 24h | Liq | Actualidad | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketMejor en general72% de coincidencia · verificado | Media | 16% | — | 9,8 € | 14,9 mil € | hace 12 minutos | Abrir → |
| Manifold MarketsEsta página | — | 47% | — | — | — | ayer |
También disponible en Polymarket
AI bubble burst by which date?
0.4 pts5m
-0.4pt16%
-0.1pt0%
+0.1pt0%
59 • Calidad mediaSpread estrechoLiquidez media
Volumen total2,6 M €
Volumen 24h9,8 €
POLYMARKETReglas
Will the AI bubble pop by X date?
- For the purpose of resolving this market, I will define the AI bubble popping as a reduction in the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) closing price of 35% or more within a period of 10 consecutive trading days.
- More formally, let pₜ be the closing price of MAGS on trading day t, and let pₜ₊ₛ be the closing price of MAGS on trading day t + s, such that 0 < s ≤ 10.
- A market will resolve to Yes if
- (pₜ - pₜ₊ₛ) / pₜ ≥ .35
- is satisfied by the stated date.
Las probabilidades pueden diferir debido a diferentes estructuras de mercado, comisiones y grupos de participantes.
Tendencia de volumen
$709 jul4d de datos25 jul
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Will the AI bubble pop by X date?
- For the purpose of resolving this market, I will define the AI bubble popping as a reduction in the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) closing price of 35% or more within a period of 10 consecutive trading days.
- More formally, let pₜ be the closing price of MAGS on trading day t, and let pₜ₊ₛ be the closing price of MAGS on trading day t + s, such that 0 < s ≤ 10.
- A market will resolve to Yes if
- (pₜ - pₜ₊ₛ) / pₜ ≥ .35
- is satisfied by the stated date.