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Will the AI bubble pop by X date?

Manifold MarketsSin KYC

Pronóstico comunitario actual

By 12-31-2025 0%

Líder entre 10 opciones

Pronosticadores

72

Tipo de pregunta

multiple choice

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 5 días

Desactualizado

26 oct 25, 11:3831 dic 27, 10:29

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Resultado elegido

By 6-30-20263%

Apuesta (USDT)

Reglas

Will the AI bubble pop by X date?

For the purpose of resolving this market, I will define the AI bubble popping as a reduction in the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) closing price of 35% or more within a period of 10 consecutive trading days.
More formally, let pₜ be the closing price of MAGS on trading day t, and let pₜ₊ₛ be the closing price of MAGS on trading day t + s, such that 0 < s ≤ 10.
A market will resolve to Yes if
(pₜ - pₜ₊ₛ) / pₜ ≥ .35
is satisfied by the stated date.

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Reglas

Will the AI bubble pop by X date?

For the purpose of resolving this market, I will define the AI bubble popping as a reduction in the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) closing price of 35% or more within a period of 10 consecutive trading days.
More formally, let pₜ be the closing price of MAGS on trading day t, and let pₜ₊ₛ be the closing price of MAGS on trading day t + s, such that 0 < s ≤ 10.
A market will resolve to Yes if
(pₜ - pₜ₊ₛ) / pₜ ≥ .35
is satisfied by the stated date.