Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 94.7%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 14 horas
Desactualizado11 mar 26, 18:04 UTC31 dic 26, 17:21 UTC
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Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
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Manifold MarketsReglas
Somewhat more of a speculative market, but something I've been thinking about over the past day.
- Iranian sources have confirmed that Mojtaba was in the compound and was injured when it was struck by Israel, possibly seriously enough that he required hospitalization (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/11/mojtaba-khamenei-was-hurt-in-strike-that-killed-his-father-irans-cyprus-ambassador-confirms).
- As far as I am aware no one else is known to have survived the strike, and it seems unlikely Israel would strike their highest priority target in a way that would be likely to leave survivors somewhere on the compound.
- Since his election as Supreme Leader, Mojtaba has not been seen or given any statements.
- The explanation that has been given is that he is in hiding, which is reasonable enough.
- However one might expect that he would make some kind of statement and appearance to rally his supporters if he was in any condition to do so, even if pre-recorded to avoid giving away clues to his location.
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Is Mojtaba Khamenei already dead??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 95% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Is Mojtaba Khamenei already dead??
- Está previsto que Is Mojtaba Khamenei already dead? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Is Mojtaba Khamenei already dead??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Somewhat more of a speculative market, but something I've been thinking about over the past day.