Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
No 56.3%
Pronosticadores
51
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 14 horas
Desactualizado29 ago 23, 3:29 UTC2 ene 27, 7:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be on the Joe Rogan Experience podcast before the end of 2026?
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KalshiReglas
The Waves Arisen is a Naruto fanfic with rationalist themes: https://wertifloke.wordpress.com/2015/01/25/chapter-1/
- There is sometimes speculation about whether the author Wertifloke is a pseudonym of noted rationalist fanfic author Eliezer Yudkowsky.
- Let's bet on it!
- This market is conditional on strong evidence coming out in favor of one outcome or the other.
- This market will trust Eliezer Yudkowsky's honor not to lie, and if he makes a relevant joke, to admit that it was a joke when asked.
- Likewise it will trust the word of others with a strong record of commitment to the truth.
Mercados abiertos
Society & CulturePOLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
- 40-64-2.0pt45.5%
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- <40-5.5pt12.1%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
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KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No98%
- Yes-2.0pt2%
- Volumen total
- 6,8 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 5,8 mil €
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- Hurricane95%
- Canada / Canadian89%
- Tariff86%
+13 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 6,1 mil €
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KALSHIWill Florida receive more visitors in 2026 than in 2025?
- No82%
- Yes18%
- Volumen total
- 18,1 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 989,4 €
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- No95%
- Yes-6.0pt5%
- Volumen total
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POLYMARKETPoilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
- No+1.5pt80.2%
- Yes-1.5pt19.8%
- Volumen total
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- Volumen 24h
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Is Eliezer Yudkowsky the author of The Waves Arisen??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 56% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Is Eliezer Yudkowsky the author of The Waves Arisen??
- Está previsto que Is Eliezer Yudkowsky the author of The Waves Arisen? se resuelva el 2 de enero de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Is Eliezer Yudkowsky the author of The Waves Arisen??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: The Waves Arisen is a Naruto fanfic with rationalist themes: https://wertifloke.wordpress.com/2015/01/25/chapter-1/