Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 95%
Pronosticadores
7
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 7 horas
Desactualizado10 mar 26, 5:35 UTC10 mar 27, 6:31 UTC
Tendencias
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Is Syzygy on the Glowfic constellation an alternate account of Eliezer Yudkowsky?
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KalshiReglas
This question will resolve "yes" if the person behind the account Conradin, as seen on glowfic and AO3, is revealed to be Eliezer Yudkowsky or to otherwise be posting content substantively written by them.
- It will resolve as no if this is revealed to be false,.
- If the question for some reason becomes unanswerable, or a situation emerges where it would have been revealed if it was true, I will attempt to resolve it as accurately as possible with the information available.
- In other cases it will remain unresolved until a conclusion is reached.
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Is Conradin an alternate handle for Eliezer Yudkowsky??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 95% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Is Conradin an alternate handle for Eliezer Yudkowsky??
- Está previsto que Is Conradin an alternate handle for Eliezer Yudkowsky? se resuelva el 10 de marzo de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Is Conradin an alternate handle for Eliezer Yudkowsky??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: This question will resolve "yes" if the person behind the account Conradin, as seen on glowfic and AO3, is revealed to be Eliezer Yudkowsky or to otherwise be posting content substantively written by them.