In what year will China establish a domestic semiconductor supply chain that is not vulnerable to sanctions?
ChinaOne-OffTecnología
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual2030-2034 48%Líder entre 5 opciones
Pronosticadores
18
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 5 horas
Desactualizado28 mar 25, 12:27 UTC1 ene 51, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Reglas
This question examines the timeline for China to develop a completely self-sufficient semiconductor industry, achieving technological independence across the entire chip supply chain.
- This would require developing domestic alternatives to replace critical foreign dependencies including advanced chip fabrication (TSMC), cutting-edge lithography equipment (ASML), high-precision optical systems (Zeiss), and other essential technologies currently subject to export controls and sanctions.
- Resolution Criteria
- This question will resolve as "Yes" for a given year if ALL of the following conditions are met:
- Advanced Manufacturing Capability: A Chinese company must demonstrate volume production of logic chips at 5 nm process node or smaller with competitive yields - at least 70%.
- Equipment Independence: Chinese companies must supply at least 70% of the semiconductor manufacturing equipment used in Chinese fabs, including Extreme Ultraviolet lithography equipment.
