In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?
IAOne-Off4a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 84.1%
Pronosticadores
109
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 3 horas
Desactualizado3 feb 23, 16:31 UTC1 ene 31, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
In what years there will be blog posts at https://blog.gitbutler.com/
Manifold MarketsIn what years there will be blog posts at https://blog.val.town/
Manifold MarketsWill physicians and lawyers be 99th percentile occupations in 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill I publish 2 blog posts a month every month in 2026?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiReglas
See https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mostly-skeptical-thoughts-on-the (note that I'm asking about the inverse of his 4th prediction).
- Resolution criteria from the post: "The AI will fail this task if there’s any kind of post I write that it can’t imitate - for example analyzing scientific data, or writing fiction, or reviewing books.
- It will fail this task it it writes fluently but says false things (at a rate higher than I do), eg if it makes up references.
- It doesn’t have to be able to coordinate complex multistep projects like the Book Review Contest".
- Related markets: