Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
Sí 89.3%
Pronosticadores
18
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 13 horas
Desactualizado6 ene 23, 10:32 UTC31 dic 30, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
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KalshiReglas
If this question resolves, what is the chance that givewell an organisation has ceased to exist in a form similar to it’s current form?
- This question must actually resolve - it is a question about organisational change, not existential risk.
- This question will still resolve positively if:
- GiveWell becomes part of another organisation
- more than 60% of staff move to a new organisation at once
- if it changes its name.
Mercados abiertos
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will GiveWell exist in 2031? (X-risk doesn't count)?
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 89% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will GiveWell exist in 2031? (X-risk doesn't count)?
- Está previsto que Will GiveWell exist in 2031? (X-risk doesn't count) se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2030.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will GiveWell exist in 2031? (X-risk doesn't count)?
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: If this question resolves, what is the chance that givewell an organisation has ceased to exist in a form similar to it’s current form?