If there is a second election in Israel, will the Arab parties do better or worse?
0.1 pts (24h)PolíticaOne-OffElecciónOriente Medio1m
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actualGovernment forms without a second election 56.4%+0.1ptLíder entre 3 opciones
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4
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
+6.4 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 1 hora
Retrasado29 oct 26, 13:43 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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The recent Knesset election in Israel resulted in no coalition achieving a majority of seats.
- Will a government manage to form or will there be a second election? If there is another election, will the Arab parties manage to repeat their impressive performance in the first election?
- If a Prime Minister is sworn in, this market resolves to "the named outcome" even if that government only lasts a very short amount of time and another election ends up happening.
- I think the current figure of 19 seats for the Arab parties is still provisional as a few votes are still to be counted.
- In the unlikely event this changes, this market resolves according to the "19 or more/fewer than 19 seats" criteria, not the actual number of seats.
- By "Arab parties" I mean Joint List and United Arab List (Ra'am).
