¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de If elected, will President Trump succeed in jailing his opponents??

Manifold Markets cotiza No al 61.6% a fecha de 30 de octubre de 2026.

If elected, will President Trump succeed in jailing his opponents?

Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibrado

Pronóstico comunitario actual

No 61.6%

Pronosticadores

Tipo de pregunta

binary

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 19 horas

Desactualizado

27 oct 24, 19:48 UTC1 ene 29, 7:59 UTC

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Reglas

Resolves YES if any political opponent of Trump is arrested on charges brought at Trump’s behest.

This is in response to Trump’s recent statement that “there are enemies within”.
Criminal charges against any public figure perceived by Trump or his supporters to have acted contrary to Trump qualify for this market.
Criminal charges that result in arrest resolve YES, even if the defendant is booked and released pending trial.
Charges that do not result in arrest (eg civil charges) do not resolve this market.
The results of trials based on charges that predate Trump’s second term do not resolve this market.