If Donald Trump wins in 2024, will the 2028 election be free and fair?
PolíticaOne-OffUS PoliticsElección3a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
Sí 75%
Pronosticadores
30
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 14 horas
Desactualizado11 jun 24, 1:36 UTC1 ene 30, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
The 2026 US Congressional election will be free and fair
Manifold MarketsWill Brazil's 2026 election be free and fair?
Manifold MarketsConditional on Donald Trump winning the election, will there be a free and fair election in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump’s election order lead to large-scale ballot blocking?
KalshiWill Donald Trump attend UFC 331?
KalshiDonald Trump # Truth Social posts September 4 - September 11, 2026?
PolymarketReglas
This market resolves as YES if Donald Trump wins in 2024, and the 2028 election is conducted freely and fairly, with the winning candidate taking the office of President of the United States on January 20, 2029.
- This market resolves as NO in the following scenarios
- -The 2028 election is not conducted freely and fairly, with the winning candidate doing so though cheating or changing the rules on behalf of their party.
- -The 2028 election is conducted freely and fairly, but the transition of power is disrupted in a way that leads to the losing candidate or their party being in power past January 20, 2029.
- -The 2028 election is cancelled or not conducted, allowing a single candidate to remain in power indefintely past the end of their term.
Mercados abiertos
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 605,6 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 691,8 mil €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.3pt1%
+16 resultados más
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt73.3%
- New People (NL)-2.7pt22.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 603,1 M €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16.2%
- Jon Ossoff-2.0pt16.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 183,6 M €
KALSHINew Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Chris Pappas+1.3pt100%
- Karishma Manzur-1.8pt0%
- Jared Sullivan-0.2pt0%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
- Next French Presidential Election
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- NJ-07 House winner?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de If Donald Trump wins in 2024, will the 2028 election be free and fair??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 75% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve If Donald Trump wins in 2024, will the 2028 election be free and fair??
- Está previsto que If Donald Trump wins in 2024, will the 2028 election be free and fair? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2030.
- ¿Cómo se liquida If Donald Trump wins in 2024, will the 2028 election be free and fair??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: This market resolves as YES if Donald Trump wins in 2024, and the 2028 election is conducted freely and fairly, with the winning candidate taking the office of President of the United States on January 20, 2029.