If Democrats win the Senate in 2026, will the Senate confirm at least 40 federal judges in the 120th Congress?
PolíticaOne-OffPolítica de EE. UU.2a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 89%
Pronosticadores
9
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 16 horas
Desactualizado7 oct 26, 2:54 UTC3 ene 29, 17:00 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
If Republicans keep the Senate in 2026, will the Senate confirm at least 40 federal judges in the 120th Congress?
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Manifold MarketsWill Democrats win the Senate in the 2028 Senate elections?
Manifold MarketsWill any federal judges be confirmed in Oct 2026?
KalshiWill the Democrats win the Senate, Democrats win the House, and Republicans win the Presidency in the 2028 election?
ForecastExReglas
Condition: Democrats control the U.S. Senate when the 120th Congress convenes on January 3, 2027: Democratic senators plus independents who caucus with them hold at least 51 seats (a 50–50 Senate is Republican control because the Vice President is a Republican).
- Otherwise this market resolves N/A. Resolves YES if the U.S. Senate confirms 40 or more Article III judges (Supreme Court, courts of appeals, district courts and the Court of International Trade) between January 3, 2027 and January 3, 2029, as counted by the Federal Judicial Center's biographical directory or the Senate's record of confirmations.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- This is one half of a conditional pair; its twin asks the same question if Republicans keep the Senate.
- Comparing the two shows what the market thinks control of the Senate changes.
