If Democrats win the Senate in 2026, will the Senate confirm a new Supreme Court justice before January 3, 2029?
PolíticaOne-OffPolítica de EE. UU.Elección2a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 89.4%
Pronosticadores
2
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 16 horas
Desactualizado7 oct 26, 2:05 UTC3 ene 29, 17:00 UTC
Tendencias
Reglas
Condition: Democrats control the U.S. Senate when the 120th Congress convenes on January 3, 2027: Democratic senators plus independents who caucus with them hold at least 51 seats (a 50–50 Senate is Republican control because the Vice President is a Republican).
- Otherwise this market resolves N/A. Resolves YES if the U.S. Senate votes to confirm a nominee to the Supreme Court of the United States between January 3, 2027 and January 3, 2029 (inclusive), for any seat including Chief Justice.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- This is one half of a conditional pair; its twin asks the same question if Republicans keep the Senate.
- Comparing the two shows what the market thinks control of the Senate changes.
