If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?
IAOne-OffRegulación
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actualSí 68.5%
Pronosticadores
3
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 23 horas
Desactualizado8 ago 24, 17:43 UTC2 ene 50, 7:59 UTC
Tendencias
Reglas
This question originally appeared in a study by the Forecasting Research Institute, which explored a method for identifying forecasting questions that AI experts found to be the best indicators of catastrophic risk due to AI.
- The findings of the study are the subject of a forthcoming report titled “Conditional Trees: A Method for Generating Informative Questions about Complex Topics”.
- The questions appear here only slightly edited from their initial form in the study.
- This is one of several questions that experts found most informative.
- We’re excited to see how the forecasts of the Manifold community compare to those found in the study.
- We will link the report here when it is released this month.
