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Something from Eliezer's list of lethalities occurs. 83%Líder entre 4 opciones
Pronosticadores
19
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 14 horas
Desactualizado8 jul 24, 14:29 UTC2 ene 30, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
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PolymarketReglas
Inverse of https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/if-artificial-general-intelligence-539844cd3ba1?r=S3JhbnR6.
- Will not resolve.
- Primarily for users to explore particular lethalities.
- Please add responses.
- "poor" = human extinction or mass human suffering
Mercados abiertos
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KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 resultados más
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- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 344,9 mil €
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- Claude+3.6pt62%
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- Grok-0.2pt8%
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- 1480+-7.5pt63%
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de If Artificial General Intelligence has a poor outcome, what will be the reason??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Something from Eliezer's list of lethalities occurs. al 83% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve If Artificial General Intelligence has a poor outcome, what will be the reason??
- Está previsto que If Artificial General Intelligence has a poor outcome, what will be the reason? se resuelva el 2 de enero de 2030.
- ¿Cómo se liquida If Artificial General Intelligence has a poor outcome, what will be the reason??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Inverse of https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/if-artificial-general-intelligence-539844cd3ba1?r=S3JhbnR6.