If an AI system is causes the deaths of >= 5000 Americans by eoy 2027, which AI company would be most to blame? (no n/a)
IA1aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual[No such event occurs, or otherwise underlying n/a] 90.6%Líder entre 9 opciones
Pronosticadores
15
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 18 horas
Desactualizado21 ene 26, 22:34 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
If an AI system is responsible for the deaths of >= 5000 Americans by eoy 2027, which AI company would be most to blame?
Manifold MarketsIf at least one AI system causes more than 100 deaths in the next 12 months, who would be behind it?
Manifold MarketsWill an AI system write a high quality "Winds of Winter" novel before George RR Martin publishes the actual thing?
Manifold MarketsWill the European Commission's AI Office issue a formal notice of non-compliance to a provider of a "High-Risk AI System" on or before December 31, 2026?
ForecastExBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
PolymarketTop Chinese AI Company week of September 7th
KalshiReglas
Will resolve according to:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/NuñoSempere/if-an-ai-system-is-responsible-for)
Mercados abiertos
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volumen total
- 224,7 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 160,5 mil €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 2,3 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 344,9 mil €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 resultados más
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de If an AI system is causes the deaths of >= 5000 Americans by eoy 2027, which AI company would be most to blame? (no n/a)?
- Manifold Markets cotiza [No such event occurs, or otherwise underlying n/a] al 91% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve If an AI system is causes the deaths of >= 5000 Americans by eoy 2027, which AI company would be most to blame? (no n/a)?
- Está previsto que If an AI system is causes the deaths of >= 5000 Americans by eoy 2027, which AI company would be most to blame? (no n/a) se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida If an AI system is causes the deaths of >= 5000 Americans by eoy 2027, which AI company would be most to blame? (no n/a)?
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Will resolve according to: