Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 68.2%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 13 horas
Desactualizado28 ago 24, 1:03 UTC1 ene 01, 7:59 UTC
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An okay outcome is defined in Eliezer Yudkowsky's market as:
- An outcome is "okay" if it gets at least 20% of the maximum attainable cosmopolitan value that could've been attained by a positive Singularity (a la full Coherent Extrapolated Volition done correctly), and existing humans don't suffer death or any other awful fates.
- This resolves YES if I can easily point to the single AGI that has an okay outcome, and NO otherwise.