Manifold MarketsCerradoSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableEste mercado se resolvió: 8 or fewer (99%)
Resuelto: 30 sept 2026, 15:49
Resolución verificada por el proveedor
CoinRithm tiene evidencia del ganador y del momento de liquidación respaldada por el proveedor para este mercado.
Aviso de calidad de datosDatos obsoletos
Datos del 30 sept 2026, 23:41 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Cronología de Probabilidad
8 or fewer99%
90.2%
100.1%
110.1%
120.1%
130.1%
140.4%
15 or more0.4%
Ganada
Perdida
Perdida
Perdida
Perdida
Perdida
Perdida
Perdida
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KalshiReglas
Resolves to number of successful launches of all variants of orbital launch vehicles on Nextspaceflight's Manifest Page. https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/?q=&f=agency_1&tab=
- for September 2026, UTC time.
- If that page is demonstrably wrong or out of date, then I will either wait for update or a correct source will be decided upon and used as a replacement.
- A launch is considered successful if it is outlined in green on the linked manifest page.
- Launches outlined with red (failure) or orange (partial failure) will not count as successful.
- (Starship is considered an orbital launch vehicle, regardless of true orbit not being demonstrated.