How many seats will our model's most-likely Senate map be wrong on?
PolíticaOne-OffPolítica de EE. UU.ElecciónElecciones de mitad de mandato de EE. UU. 202628dManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual2 22%Líder entre 12 opciones
Pronosticadores
9
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 7 horas
Desactualizado26 jun 26, 4:26 UTC3 nov 26, 5:00 UTC
Tendencias
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Reglas
[image]This market scores our statistical model's current most-likely U.S. Senate map — the modal projected winner of each of the 35 seats up in 2026.
- Each outcome is the exact number of those 35 seats the map gets wrong once the election resolves (0 through 10, plus "the named outcome").
- It is the self-calibration counterpart to the two third-party map markets:
- 53R map (@EnopoletusHarding)
- 53D map (@Jack1)
- The model expects ~5.6 of its own best-guess calls to be wrong — the election is genuinely uncertain, and even the most-likely map has real exposure to a correlated national swing (a fat "the named outcome" tail).