Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual1 41.1%Líder entre 5 opciones
Pronosticadores
6
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 7 horas
Desactualizado30 jul 26, 1:44 UTC1 abr 27, 22:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
How many problems written by me will appear on the 2027 ELMO?
Manifold MarketsHow many problems written by me will be on the 2027 OTIS Mock AIME
Manifold MarketsWill Terence Tao write a paper with Lean code in it during the 2026 calendar year?
Manifold MarketsWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiReglas
I wrote 1.5 problems on the 2026 ELMO (P6 and joint proposer for P2).
Mercados abiertos
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+10.0pt85%
- Before 2030+7.0pt83%
- Before 2029+17.9pt50%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 211 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 110,5 mil €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 resultados más
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 202812%
- Before 20275%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 28,6 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 21,3 mil €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Volumen total
- 1,6 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 5,2 mil €
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 resultados más
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+4.0pt49%
- Before 2030+18.0pt39%
- Before 2032-9.0pt39%
+1 resultados más
- Volumen total
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Natural Disaster in 2026?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de How many problems will I write on the 2027 ELMO??
- Manifold Markets cotiza 1 al 41% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve How many problems will I write on the 2027 ELMO??
- Está previsto que How many problems will I write on the 2027 ELMO? se resuelva el 1 de abril de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida How many problems will I write on the 2027 ELMO??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: I wrote 1.5 problems on the 2026 ELMO (P6 and joint proposer for P2).