Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual6-10 years 20.6%Líder entre 7 opciones
Pronosticadores
21
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 3 horas
Desactualizado26 ago 25, 17:57 UTC26 ago 45, 17:49 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
How will Taylor Swift & Travis Kelce's marriage end?
Manifold MarketsHow will Taylor Swift & Travis Kelce's marriage end? (alternate)
Manifold MarketsWho will attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's wedding?
PolymarketTaylor Swift and Travis Kelce still together on December 31, 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Travis Kelce announce his retirement before next season?
KalshiWill Travis Kelce retire before next season?
PolymarketReglas
Time will start from the day of the wedding (if no reception, then day of court house marriage license) until date of official public announcement or official reporting of a divorce.
- Rumors and "separations" don't count, needs to be actual divorce filing.
- A full year needs to occur to make it into next category (e.g. 5 years and 10 months would be "the named outcome")
- Update 2025-10-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If either or both spouses die while still married (before any divorce filing), the market will resolve to N/A (void).
Mercados abiertos
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 135,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 102,7 mil €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 325 mil €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 resultados más
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de How long will Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's marriage last??
- Manifold Markets cotiza 6-10 years al 21% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve How long will Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's marriage last??
- Está previsto que How long will Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's marriage last? se resuelva el 26 de agosto de 2045.
- ¿Cómo se liquida How long will Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's marriage last??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Time will start from the day of the wedding (if no reception, then day of court house marriage license) until date of official public announcement or official reporting of a divorce.