Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualBacklash to Generative AI and radical deregulation will escalate. 95.9%Líder entre 6 opciones
Pronosticadores
48
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 3 horas
Desactualizado21 dic 25, 16:07 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will Gary Marcus claim to have a P(doom) of at or higher than 10% at some point before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich "AI 2027" predictions will be right by Late 2026?
Manifold MarketsGary Marcus 2029 AI predications
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketReglas
Related to this blog post: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/six-or-seven-predictions-for-ai-2026
- Resolution criteria:
- If Marcus gives a followup on his predictions, it will resolve to his recap of whether he was right in the blog post.
- If there is no followup blog post, I will ask the #1 AI model on the LMArena whether these were fulfilled, and it will resolve to that.
- If AI chatbots are illegal, non-functional, or otherwise not accessible in the US at EOY 2026, resolves to a poll.
- Will also resolve to a poll if LMArena shuts down.
Mercados abiertos
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volumen total
- 224,7 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 160,5 mil €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 2,3 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 344,9 mil €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 resultados más
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Gary Marcus 2026 AI Predictions?
- Manifold Markets cotiza Backlash to Generative AI and radical deregulation will escalate. al 96% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Gary Marcus 2026 AI Predictions?
- Está previsto que Gary Marcus 2026 AI Predictions se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Gary Marcus 2026 AI Predictions?
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Related to this blog post: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/six-or-seven-predictions-for-ai-2026