Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actualBacklash to Generative AI and radical deregulation will escalate. 96.2%Líder entre 6 opciones
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48
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
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Actualizado hace 3 horas
Desactualizado21 dic 25, 16:07 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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Related to this blog post: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/six-or-seven-predictions-for-ai-2026
- Resolution criteria:
- If Marcus gives a followup on his predictions, it will resolve to his recap of whether he was right in the blog post.
- If there is no followup blog post, I will ask the #1 AI model on the LMArena whether these were fulfilled, and it will resolve to that.
- If AI chatbots are illegal, non-functional, or otherwise not accessible in the US at EOY 2026, resolves to a poll.
- Will also resolve to a poll if LMArena shuts down.