Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 86.4%
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13
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
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Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 3 horas
Desactualizado27 jun 25, 18:19 UTC3 ene 27, 23:59 UTC
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Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Reglas
Will a federal law that preempts state-level AI regulation pass by the end of this Congress (i.e. January 3, 2027)?
- I intend to take a broad view on what "preemption" means.
- For instance:
- This question resolves YES if a law passes that penalizes states for passing or enforcing regulations on AI, even if it does not ban states from doing so.
- This question resolves YES if only some kinds of AI regulations get preempted (so long as the legislation preempts AI regulation in particular, as opposed to preempting some other class of state-level regulation that just so happens to preempt some kinds of AI regulation as well).
- For example, the Lummis bill has a narrow preemption clause that preempts enforcement of state laws against developers under certain narrow circumstances (see page 9, line 18 here).
Mercados abiertos
Regulation
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Volumen total
- 12,4 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 182,3 mil €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028-14.0pt40%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-5.0pt37%
- Before Oct 1, 2027-16.0pt33%
+7 resultados más
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+3.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 resultados más
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 202795%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 1,4 M €
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T-0.1pt20.4%
- $1.75T–$2.0T19.4%
- $1.5T–$1.75T+0.1pt18.4%
+5 resultados más
- Conference to Win the National Championship
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will the Senate vote on the Clarity Act?
- SpaceX' Market Cap end of October 2026?
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Space Exploration Technologies' Market Cap end of September 2026?
- Will Delaware raise its corporate franchise tax?
- Will marijuana be rescheduled?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Federal AI preemption passes by January 3, 2027??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 86% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Federal AI preemption passes by January 3, 2027??
- Está previsto que Federal AI preemption passes by January 3, 2027? se resuelva el 3 de enero de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Federal AI preemption passes by January 3, 2027??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Will a federal law that preempts state-level AI regulation pass by the end of this Congress (i.e. January 3, 2027)?