Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actualNo 88.5%
Pronosticadores
14
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 6 horas
Desactualizado27 jun 25, 18:19 UTC3 ene 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will the US pass a federal AI law before Dec 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsComprehensive federal AI legislation in 2026?
KalshiComprehensive federal AI framework becomes US law before 2028?
PolymarketSenate passes Clarity Act by which date?
PolymarketHIRE Act passes by 2026
Manifold MarketsCircuit-level appeal of a dismissal of a microplastics case on the merits (preemption, causation, pleadings) byEOY2028?
Manifold MarketsReglas
Will a federal law that preempts state-level AI regulation pass by the end of this Congress (i.e. January 3, 2027)?
- I intend to take a broad view on what "preemption" means.
- For instance:
- This question resolves YES if a law passes that penalizes states for passing or enforcing regulations on AI, even if it does not ban states from doing so.
- This question resolves YES if only some kinds of AI regulations get preempted (so long as the legislation preempts AI regulation in particular, as opposed to preempting some other class of state-level regulation that just so happens to preempt some kinds of AI regulation as well).
- For example, the Lummis bill has a narrow preemption clause that preempts enforcement of state laws against developers under certain narrow circumstances (see page 9, line 18 here).