¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Does an AI disaster kill at least 100,000 people before 2040??

Manifold Markets cotiza No al 61.8% a fecha de 28 de octubre de 2026.

¿Cuándo se resuelve Does an AI disaster kill at least 100,000 people before 2040??

Está previsto que Does an AI disaster kill at least 100,000 people before 2040? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2040.

Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: -"Does": the main cause must have been the AI, not external circumstance.

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Pronóstico comunitario actual

No 61.8%

Pronosticadores

Tipo de pregunta

binary

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 14 horas

Desactualizado

2 jul 23, 22:52 UTC1 ene 40, 22:43 UTC

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Reglas

-"Does": the main cause must have been the AI, not external circumstance.

-"an": the deaths must be from the same source, such as a glitch, misfire or AI attack (we won't combine unrelated disasters).
We'll include cumulative deaths over time (such as the same glitch killing people over several months), as long as it's credible that the deaths were caused by the same AI problem.
-"AI": must be a system (or multiple systems) that relied on artificial intelligence for its decisions.
-"disaster": the AI must've done something that most smart people would say is malicious, reckless, or poor judgement.
Unless the AI was correctly following orders by a human who we agree was authorized to give those orders, then that doesn't count.