Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
Sí 84.8%
Pronosticadores
14
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 11 horas
Desactualizado3 ene 24, 21:04 UTC2 ene 30, 4:59 UTC
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Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Credible evidence Joe Biden has dementia emerges by 2030
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KalshiReglas
This will resolve based on mainstream media reports.
- Any kind of dementia counts.
- Outside speculation does not count, unless the evidence is so strong that mainstream media consensus emerges.
- https://www.newsweek.com/stop-talking-about-bidens-mental-acuity-start-talking-about-trumps-signs-dementia-opinion-1853741
- I do not bet on my markets.
Mercados abiertos
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
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- Volumen 24h
- 697,7 mil €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 resultados más
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 resultados más
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- 603,2 M €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 183,4 M €
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- 471,3 mil €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 resultados más
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Credible evidence Donald Trump has dementia emerges by 2030?
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 85% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Credible evidence Donald Trump has dementia emerges by 2030?
- Está previsto que Credible evidence Donald Trump has dementia emerges by 2030 se resuelva el 2 de enero de 2030.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Credible evidence Donald Trump has dementia emerges by 2030?
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: This will resolve based on mainstream media reports.