Conditional on Trump getting elected, how will the US democracy index have changed by the end of his term.
Política2a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
Decrease drastically (>= 0.68 && <= 0.72) 35.6%Líder entre 6 opciones
Decrease drastically (>= 0.68 && <= 0.72) 35.6%Pronosticadores
27
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multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
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Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
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Actualizado hace 2 horas
Desactualizado9 oct 24, 21:21 UTC31 mar 29, 21:59 UTC
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PolymarketReglas
WIll resolve based on the Electoral Deomcracy Index from our world in data which is based on the V-Dem report.
- 2023 the US got 0.85.
- Will resolve to NA if trump is not elected in 2024 (all mana returned).
- Otherwise, will resolve once the data for 2028 is released (probably march 2029).
- https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/democracy?tab=chart&time=1975..latest&showSelectionOnlyInTable=1&country=~USA&Dataset=Varieties+of+Democracy&Metric=Electoral+democracy&Sub-metric=Main+index
- For reference the following indexes were given in 2023.
