[Carlini questions] Majority of consumer AI applications will operate autonomously on multi-step tasks by year
One-OffIATecnología3a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualBy 1st Jan 2030 66.2%Líder entre 5 opciones
Pronosticadores
5
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 6 horas
Desactualizado24 mar 25, 2:19 UTC1 ene 30, 23:59 UTC
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Full question: "chance that the majority of consumer AI applications will operate autonomously on multi-step tasks rather than by just answering user questions as chatbots"
- Resolution Criteria:
- I will resolve this question to "yes" if it feels like most of the time we interact with AI systems it's as if we're interacting with a co-worker or friend who can actually take actions in the world, and to "no" if it feels like we're still using them as smarter internet search engines, knowledge bases, or question answering systems.
- By analogy, in 2024 if we want directions somewhere, we (mostly) have our phone guide us with step-by-step directions.
- But 30 years ago, we would have (mostly) looked at a physical map and planned the route ourselves.
- This question asks if we will (mostly) be using AI systems and expect them to take the actions we ask of them, or if we will still be using them as just tools to help answer our questions.
