Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoAviso de calidad de datosDatos obsoletos
Datos del 31 oct 2026, 17:25 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actualSí 70%
Pronosticadores
89
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado ayer
Desactualizado7 jun 26, 4:33 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
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KalshiReglas
On jan 1 2028, i will send the best (not-explicitely-specialized-for-this-task) model (not limited to video model, could be a text based AI agent that spawns video models with tool calls, if non-specialized) at the time a movie (file) and the pompt ‘balenciaga it’.
- If it turns the movie into a ~full-length balenciaga meme version of the movie at a quality comparable to or better than the balenciaga generations today (in mid 2026), this market resolves yes.
- Slightly modifying the prompt to clarify you want it to balenciaga the entire movie is ok, but clarifying what balenciagaing means is not allowed.
- Can pick a movie that doesn't have copyright if need be.
- Saying ‘go on’ repeatedly if it’s too short is OK.
- The resulting video must be about as long as the movie.
