Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 26 oct 2026, 5:41 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actualNo 87%
Pronosticadores
3
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 9 horas
Desactualizado24 oct 26, 10:18 UTC23 nov 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
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My current number: 30%.
- That's my probability that, by January 1, 2030, there is an AI system that can do essentially any job a median remote worker can do, at a cost comparable to paying that worker, and that this is broadly accepted (not just claimed by the lab that built it).
- Your job is to change that number by a lot, in either direction.
- Argue that I'm too high, or that I'm too low.
- How to play: comment on this market with an argument, evidence, a forecast, a paper, a demo, a question I can't answer well.
- I reply to every comment here and say whether it moved me and why.