By EOY 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full movie based on the user's algorithmically observed preferences?
IAOne-OffTecnologíaEntretenimiento2a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 67.8%
Pronosticadores
3
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 1 hora
Retrasado13 oct 26, 9:06 UTC31 dic 28, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Reglas
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, on or before December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM UTC, a functional AI platform or service (could be part of an existing video-streaming app) is publicly released or demonstrated that generates a full-length movie (at least 60 minutes in duration) tailored to an individual based on their algorithmically observed preferences.
- To resolve YES, the system must meet all of the following conditions:
- Duration: The resulting video must be a feature-length movie running at least 60 minutes.
- Algorithmic Personalization: The movie must be dynamically generated or assembled by leveraging implicit user profile data (e.g., viewing history, engagement metrics, or behavioral preference algorithms), rather than relying strictly on manual, scene-by-scene prompt engineering or scripting provided by the user at runtime.
- Verification: The capability must be publicly available, accessible in beta/commercial release, or demonstrated via a verifiable public proof-of-concept reported on by reputable technology news sources (e.g., TechCrunch, The Verge, Ars Technica, Wired, or Reuters).
