¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de By 2030, will LLMs have a bigger impact on the economy than GLP-1 receptor agents??

Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 90.4% a fecha de 1 de noviembre de 2026.

By 2030, will LLMs have a bigger impact on the economy than GLP-1 receptor agents?

Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibrado

Pronóstico comunitario actual

Sí 90.4%

Pronosticadores

Tipo de pregunta

binary

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 1 hora

Retrasado

3 oct 23, 12:05 UTC2 ene 30, 4:59 UTC

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Reglas

Derek Thompson asks the question here: https://twitter.com/DKThomp/status/1708875151373172856.

Responses incluude multiple predictions that the answer will be no.
So, market, obviously.
Resolves to YES if LLMs have a bigger economic impact on the economy by 2030 than GLP-1 receptors, NO otherwise.
If the answer to this question is non-obvious even in 2030 after I examine the economic data, I will ask an economist or similar expert.
If the answer is obvious in advance - defined as persistant weeks-long market price of <5% or >95% with little activity, where I also see no plausible way for the answer to still change, I will resolve this market early.