Brazil 2026 Election: which pollsters stay within the margin for the top-2 in the 1st-round presidential election?
PolíticaOne-OffElecciónLatin America26dManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualDatafolha 35.1%Líder entre 7 opciones
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3
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multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Pronóstico
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Actualizado hace 16 horas
Desactualizado2 feb 26, 19:33 UTC4 oct 26, 23:59 UTC
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KalshiReglas
Each answer resolves YES or NO independently.
- For each polling organization, consider their last publicly released national presidential voting-intention poll registered in TSE before election day (exclude exit polls / “boca de urna”).
- Let the top-2 candidates be the two candidates with the highest official 1st-round valid-vote share in the results published by Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE).
- A pollster’s answer resolves YES if both top-2 candidates’ poll estimates are within the poll’s stated margin of error (in percentage points) of the official result:
- For each of the two candidates: |poll_estimate − official_result| ≤ margin_of_error
- If either candidate is outside the margin → NO
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Brazil 2026 Election: which pollsters stay within the margin for the top-2 in the 1st-round presidential election??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Datafolha al 35% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Brazil 2026 Election: which pollsters stay within the margin for the top-2 in the 1st-round presidential election??
- Está previsto que Brazil 2026 Election: which pollsters stay within the margin for the top-2 in the 1st-round presidential election? se resuelva el 4 de octubre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Brazil 2026 Election: which pollsters stay within the margin for the top-2 in the 1st-round presidential election??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Each answer resolves YES or NO independently.