Any study (n>1000) shows reduction in unassisted problem-solving among heavy AI users by end 2026?
IAOne-OffTecnología3mManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 61%
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9
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 13 horas
Desactualizado23 sept 25, 1:52 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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- Resolution criteria
- Resolves YES if, by 23:59:59 UTC on December 31, 2026, there is at least one publicly released empirical study with n > 1000 human participants that reports a statistically significant reduction in unassisted problem-solving performance for “heavy AI users” (as defined by the study: e.g., top-quantile usage logs, assigned heavy-use condition, or clearly specified frequent-use threshold) compared to lighter/non-users or to their own baseline when AI is not allowed during the outcome assessment (p < 0.05 or 95% CI excluding zero).
- “Unassisted problem-solving” = tasks completed without AI access at test time (e.g., proctored exams, reasoning/problem-solving assessments where AI tools are prohibited).
- n > 1000 refers to unique participants analyzed (not number of items/tasks/observations).
- Multi-site replications may aggregate across identical protocols if the combined participant count exceeds 1000.
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Any study (n>1000) shows reduction in unassisted problem-solving among heavy AI users by end 2026??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 61% a fecha de 22 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Any study (n>1000) shows reduction in unassisted problem-solving among heavy AI users by end 2026??
- Está previsto que Any study (n>1000) shows reduction in unassisted problem-solving among heavy AI users by end 2026? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Any study (n>1000) shows reduction in unassisted problem-solving among heavy AI users by end 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: https://joeandseth.substack.com/p/prompt-writing-outsourcing-cognition