AI safety community successfully advocates for a global AI development slowdown by December 2027
IAOne-Off1a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
No 83.8%
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16
Tipo de pregunta
binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 6 horas
Desactualizado4 abr 25, 3:54 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
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KalshiReglas
This market resolves to YES if, by December 31, 2027, the AI safety community successfully advocates for and achieves a significant global slowdown in frontier AI development.
- A "significant global slowdown" requires at least two of the following:
- A formal international agreement signed by at least 3 of the top 5 AI-producing countries to limit or pause certain types of AI development
- Major AI labs (at least 3 of the top 5) publicly committing to and implementing significant voluntary slowdowns
- Implementation of substantial regulatory barriers to rapid AI development in at least 3 of the top 5 major AI-producing countries
- The slowdown must be explicitly connected to AI safety concerns and must represent a material change from the previous development pace.
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de AI safety community successfully advocates for a global AI development slowdown by December 2027?
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 84% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve AI safety community successfully advocates for a global AI development slowdown by December 2027?
- Está previsto que AI safety community successfully advocates for a global AI development slowdown by December 2027 se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida AI safety community successfully advocates for a global AI development slowdown by December 2027?
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: This market resolves to YES if, by December 31, 2027, the AI safety community successfully advocates for and achieves a significant global slowdown in frontier AI development.